I recently read When Genius Failed, so I found it interesting that Ed Sim compares the current hubris at Google to what was going on at Long Term Capital Management in 1998.
I was having lunch with a friend recently who was telling me about some of his dealings with Google over the last year. As an ex-Wall Street guy, it struck him that some of the meetings he had with Google were like the ones he had at Long Term Capital years ago. Even when LTC was about to crater, he remembers going to their offices, being sequestered into an off-campus conference room, and not being able to get any information out of them to even help bail them out. In addition, people would show up and leave during the meeting, take notes, and not even introduce themselves. Well, it turns out that his meetings with Google over the last year were pretty similar.
...
There are other parallels-Google has an appetite for hiring PhDs. is driven by an incredible proprietary algorithm, and is by far the best web company on the street and performing like a rock star. Like LTC, the bigger and bigger Google gets, the harder it will be for them to drive significant percentage based growth. In addition, the culture, since it is one driven by engineers, can also be driven by a NIH or not invented here syndrome. Ultimately, since history always does repeat itself, I hope that Google understands that self-confidence is imperative but hubris and arrogance can kill.
Comments